Singapore Coffee Market Research: What Consumers Actually Want
Singapore's coffee market is a study in contradictions. A nation that invented kopi peng siew dai now has more specialty coffee shops per capita than Melbourne. Starbucks competes with kopitiam. Flash Coffee competes with both. Luckin Coffee, Fore Coffee, and Compose Coffee pile in.
Over 3,000 F&B outlets closed in Singapore in 2024—the highest number in two decades. Yet coffee shops keep opening. Something about the market math doesn't add up until you understand what consumers are actually buying.
The question for brands isn't whether Singaporeans drink coffee. Everyone does. The question is what they're actually purchasing when they buy coffee—and the answer changes by context, occasion, and mood.
What We're Observing
The Same Consumer, Four Different Choices
The same consumer might drink traditional kopi from a hawker stall at 7am, order Starbucks via GrabFood at 10am, visit a specialty cafe for single-origin pourover at 3pm, and make instant 3-in-1 at home after dinner.
These aren't different consumers. They're different occasions for the same consumer. Each occasion has different jobs to be done: morning routine and value, mid-morning convenience and productivity, afternoon experience and social, evening simplicity and cost.
Brands that assume they're competing for "the coffee consumer" miss the reality: they're competing for occasions.
The Consistency Paradox
In focus groups, consumers cite "taste" as their primary driver. But when pressed, they struggle to articulate what good taste means or how they'd evaluate it. What they actually mean is consistency: the same drink should taste the same every time.
A single bad experience erodes trust disproportionately. One watery latte after twenty perfect ones creates doubt. Brands that scale quickly without quality control lose customers faster than they gain them.
The Loyalty Illusion
Consumers claim brand loyalty they don't actually demonstrate. App data tells a different story: most have multiple coffee apps installed. Usage isn't exclusive—it's opportunistic. The brand with the best promo code today wins today's purchase.
Subscription programs improve retention but reach limited audiences. Points programs generate some stickiness, but a competing 30% discount can override months of accumulated points.
Questions Worth Exploring
For chain operators: Is your actual competition other chains, or the kopitiam downstairs that costs one-fifth as much? What are consumers really trading off when they choose you?
For specialty coffee: How large is the audience that genuinely values what you offer versus the audience that visits for Instagram and never returns? Can you tell the difference?
For new market entrants: What's your theory of displacement? Who loses when you win? If you can't name the competitor whose customers you're taking, you may not have a strategy.
Consumer Segments Worth Understanding
Framework 1: Occasion-Based Segmentation
The Four Coffee Occasions in Singapore
Different occasions have different decision criteria. Map your brand against the occasions you realistically win:
| Occasion | Priority Stack | Typical Winners |
|---|---|---|
| Morning Ritual 6-8am, daily | 1. Routine/familiarity 2. Value 3. Speed | Kopitiam, home brew, convenience stores |
| Work Fuel 10am-12pm, 3-5pm | 1. Convenience 2. Speed 3. Acceptable quality | Delivery apps, office building cafes, Flash/Luckin |
| Social/Experience Weekends, after work | 1. Environment 2. Experience 3. Social proof | Specialty cafes, Starbucks, Instagram spots |
| Home Comfort Evenings, weekends | 1. Cost 2. Simplicity 3. Comfort | Instant coffee, home machines, cold brew concentrate |
Probe in focus groups: "Walk me through yesterday's coffee. Where did you get it? Why there and not somewhere else?"
Framework 2: Switching Trigger Analysis
What Actually Makes Coffee Consumers Switch?
Test these switching triggers with consumers to understand real versus claimed loyalty:
| Trigger | Switch Likelihood | Consumer Logic |
|---|---|---|
| 30% discount on competitor app | Very High | "Coffee is coffee. Why pay more?" |
| 5-minute faster delivery estimate | High | "I need it now, not in 25 minutes" |
| New location opened closer to work | High | "Convenience wins" |
| One bad order experience | Moderate-High | "If they messed up once..." |
| Friend recommends alternative | Moderate | "I'll try it once" |
| Better loyalty program elsewhere | Low-Moderate | "Takes too long to matter" |
Conclusion
The coffee category is crowded but not mature. Consumer habits are still forming, especially among younger Singaporeans who didn't grow up with fixed kopi routines. The brands that win will understand not just what consumers drink but why different occasions call for different choices.
At Singapore Insights, we design research that maps consumer decision-making by occasion, not just by stated preference. If you're entering or expanding in Singapore's coffee market, let us have a conversation. You can also write to our Research Lead, Felicia at felicia@assembled.sg or give us a call at +65 8118 1048.
